Andersen Consulting’s $2.3B e-book fantasy
The consumer market for e-book content will reach $2.3 billion dollars in 2005, including $700 million in “replacement sales.” That’s what Andersen Consulting was guestimating for the Association of American Publishers in 2000, going by “illustrative projections” from industry researchers.
Nice dream, eh? The reality is that net sales of e-books in the U.S. in January 2003 were all of $3.3 million, according to an AAP press release. I ran across the Andersen beaut while looking for a little context to accompany the latest sales figures from AAP, reporting a year-to-date increase of 169.9 percent compared to 2002. Even at a growth rate like this, we’re a long way from the projections served up by Enron’s favorite consulting firm.
Question: Even if just $100 million of U.S. library money went for electronic books–a tiny fraction of the total library spending for content–wouldn’t the e-book industry multiply its revenues? Simply put, electronic publishers would be crazy not to lobby for a TeleRead-style approach–including a national digital library fund, so that cash-strapped local libraries could be involved, not just wealthier library systems.
Current library spending in the States is around $25 per capita for content and more, but a 2002 ALA poll suggests that most Americans would welcome increases, especially as more people turn to libraries to acquire skills to be more competitive in the job market. They like their local libraries and undoubtedly would like them even more with the wider selection of books that the new medium could bring.
Where Andersen was right: The report talks up the need for e-book standards and says publishers should avoid “risk of obsolesence” of software or hardware. Yoo-hoo, OeBF?
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