Want to reach nongeeks? Then beware of the C word
By Casey Bisson
TeleRead received its first reports of the Pepper Pad in the wild yesterday, and it kicked off some good conversation. I had replied to the post with a comment saying:
The difficulty Pepper, or anybody entering this space, will face is expectations management. If people start to think about this as a “computer,†rather than a toaster, then the jig is up. Sure, there are some experienced users who will use the Pepper Pad for all its linux goodness, but most users don’t complain about getting root on their TV remotes or microwaves.
David’s response was right on when he asked for “less ‘expectations management’ and more improvements.” I started to answer him in email, but it grew to become a full post here.
I didn’t mean to suggest that Pepper didn’t have some work to do. The Pepper folks say they really wanted to be software developers, but started work on the Pepper Pad when they couldn’t find any other suitable hardware. Problem is, Pepper is releasing their hardware without all the software it needs (or all that they’ve developed so far). Yes, it needs an e-book app, and I wish I knew who they were working with or when it is to be released, but they say “soon,” and as a software update.
I am, however, serious about managing our expectations about what the device is and what we should be able to do with it. The Cybook is probably a better model for what they’re trying to do than anything else out now. Geeks look at things asking what they can do to them, the rest of the world is asking for something to do the things they want to. Computers have necessarily put a little geek in everybody, but those expectations are counterproductive to the development of new devices like the Pepper Pad. Twenty years ago geeks scorned the Macintosh because it didn’t offer the DOS prompt they expected. Where’s that DOS prompt now? Geeks aren’t average users, we shouldn’t use those expectations in judging products targeted at the mass market.
Only around 500 million people have internet access worldwide, fewer that 100 million people in the US have internet access at home. With populations of over 6 billion and around 300 million respectively, there’s clearly a lot of growth potential. But our notions of what a computer is have to change before we’ll meet it.
Computers may be big business, but phones and television are much bigger. In the US, Nielsen estimates there are over 275 million people with TVs in their homes today, and the CTIA says there are over 180 million mobile phone users. I’m looking for a device that is designed to serve the 90 million Americans who have cell phones, but don’t appear to have their own computers or home internet access. I’m looking for the device that replaces TVs as the leading entertainment and news medium. The information age will have arrived when there’s a dozen kiosks in every mall hawking internet tablets and we see them lined up at Best Buy with differentiated models for the kitchen, living room, the kids rooms, and for camping.
(Moderator’s note: Casey is a web application developer at Plymouth State University’s Lamson Library and writes regularly on library and technology matters at his blog, MaisonBisson.com. - David Rothman)
Technorati Tags: cell phones, information age, internet, internet access, market penetration, mobile communications, news and entertainment, paradigm shift, pepper, pepper pad, portable computing, television, web, web applications
August 3rd, 2005 at 11:57 am
Rather than preferring the Nokia 770 to the Pepper Pad because it’s more of a computer, what I’m seeing is that it’s preferable because being more of a general computer it can more readily supply users with things they want to do on a carry-around device. And Pepper Company has unfortunately fallen into the trap, I’m thinking, that other manufacturers before them have, and that is that they can do it all.
Me, I want to read e-books, and what I expect now is that the easiest and best experience I can get is from a general computer, as open as possible, rather than a specialized device or even a semi-specialized device like a PDA. And I think that Sony won’t be able to make everything we want on its PSP nor Pepper on its Pad nor any other maker that doesn’t use an open enviroment and a full OS. Nokia is on its own right now, but I wouldn’t expect it to be for long.
August 3rd, 2005 at 12:02 pm
Hey, guys, have at it. Delighted to see all the different perspectives popping up!
I encourage other viewpoints, just so discussion is civil and just so vendors involved identify themselves as much.
David
August 3rd, 2005 at 12:38 pm
Mike Cane’s 770 blog has a link to a story at CNET: “Has the notebook-to-handheld conversion begun?”
The Pepper Pad fits in this trend. Like Mike, I see many advantages to the 770, like David and Casey I want to see everyone succeed. I think the more devices there are that work for e-books, the sooner we have our explosion.
August 3rd, 2005 at 1:14 pm
>>>Twenty years ago geeks scorned the Macintosh because it didn’t offer the DOS prompt they expected. Where’s that DOS prompt now?
Uh…. in Linux.
Oh — and the 770!
http://nokia770.com/index.php/101/
August 3rd, 2005 at 1:27 pm
I’m an advocate of Linux and other open source projects, but we need to remember that only a very small minority of computer users want/need/know how to use a DOS prompt or bash shell.
We make a huge mistake in assuming that our definition of a “computer” is the necessary definition of an internet tablet. Less than half of the US population has internet access at home, but almost 2/3 have cell phones and virtually all have TVs. Those people aren’t linux users and probably don’t want to be. The right solution is probably based on linux, but by that time people will care about that as much as they car about what OS their cell phone uses.
There are a lot of passionate opinions about particular devices already, but I’d like to step above that for a while. My concern is that the feature sets of these devices be driven not by geeks — and I consider myself a geek — but by the needs of people who don’t yet see internet access as valuable as a cell phone or TV.
August 3rd, 2005 at 2:28 pm
>>>>Twenty years ago geeks scorned the Macintosh because it didn’t >offer the DOS prompt they expected. Where’s that DOS prompt now?
>
>Uh…. in Linux.
>
>Oh — and the 770!
>http://nokia770.com/index.php/101/
Its also in the Macintosh now.
August 3rd, 2005 at 9:29 pm
i want a full-on computer the size of a paperback, with
a color touchscreen and phone/wireless-web capabilities,
i will be willing to pay $1,000 for this, plus a reasonable
monthly fee for phone/web access. and frankly, until we
have such a machine, nothing much is going to happen.
and once we _do_, everything is gonna bust out like crazy.
some people will want smaller units, the size of a pda.
others will want bigger units, the size of a clipboard.
all of these form-factors will probably cost the same;
the smaller one because minaturization costs money,
and the large one because a bigger screen coss money.
so you will pick the form-factor you prefer, based on
form-factor alone, and not price/performance issues.
by the way, i’ve been saying this for over 5 years now.
since the screens are now available, and coming within
range of affordability, and minaturization is proceeding
on a steady (if slow) pace, it shouldn’t take much longer
for this form-factor to emerge. after that happens, it’s
simply a matter of how long the computer companies will
choose to exploit this market by keeping the price high.
based on past experience, it’ll probably be a couple years.
-bowerbird
August 4th, 2005 at 9:43 pm
Craziness. Do we all really think non-technical users want the full power of a desktop computer everywhere? In the palm of our hands? OK, so it sounds cool and most of us geeks get real excited about the possibilities this offers. However, we are the minority even if historically we have driven the computing market.
Let’s briefly list some successful devices that most would not be labeled as conventional computers, yet they possess much of the power and subsets of the funcitonality. Nintendo’s Game Boy franchise, the PSP, cell phones, home DVR systems, the interactive guide on digital cable, digital cameras, XBOX, PSX, GameCube, iPod, Creative MP3 players, and this list will continue to get longer. All these devices have wide appeal, large profits, and a significant number of deployed units.
Compare against devices attempting to do too much that have never enjoyed broad acceptance: PDAs, tablets, cell phones with PDA functionailty, and sadly the Nokia 770 will find its way here as well, no matter how cool we think it is. The hugely successful devices have an undeniable simplicity and appeal.
You don’t need to convince people they need them, they understand immediately, implicitly. No one had to be sold on the first cell phones with bells and whistles, this is just how cell makers continue to make money. All users really wanted was better service and a simple contact list. When cells hit the right price point they exploded in popularity.
Now I know a ton of people here love their Palms, Axims, or over powered cell phones. How many of you continue to use these features months after the initial gee-whiz factor wears off? Input remains a problem as miniturization continues. Voice recognition is still not ideal. Handwriting recognition will quite likely never match the speed and versatility of a keyboard.
bowerbird, they can do the miniaturization now, and make it the $1000 you want, but the execs see that a lage enough market for such a device does not exist yet, and likely never will.
I do think Pepper Pad is different, still not ideal, but better. They included a keyboard making input more reasonable. They stuck to a subset of features hiding a full OS beneath the surface. That satisfies geeks and users alike. For more a bout Pepper Pad, read my review.
August 5th, 2005 at 9:11 am
[...] There is a great discussion going on over at TeleRead titled Want to reach nongeeks? Then beware of the C word, about computing devices and handhelds. What will be popular and eventually gain critical mass with general public awareness and interest. Should the geeks be determining where we go, or should we finally listen to what users want. [...]
August 5th, 2005 at 5:10 pm
zach said:
> Craziness.
you aren’t the first to call me crazy.
and i’m sure you won’t be the last…
however, my predictions will come true,
and yours will just sit there like a stone. :+)
the problem with a “dedicated” e-book machine
is that once you’ve paid for the chip and the screen,
you’ve paid most of the cost for a full-blown computer,
so why hobble it?
> Do we all really think non-technical users
> want the full power of a desktop computer
> everywhere? In the palm of our hands?
not all the time, no.
and not everywhere.
but they will want some piece of it, and
in places all over of place, and sometimes
they will want one capability, and other
times and places another, so unless/until
they actually have a fully-capable machine,
they won’t bother _always_ carrying around
some machine that does some limited subset.
(unless it’s a phone, which — for most people –
seems to be worth the hassle of carrying around.)
such machines already exist, of course.
rocketbooks, playstations, p.d.a.’s, etc.
and in the future, better ones will appear,
such as roger’s beloved nokia770. but
none of these machines will be able to
obtain the marketshare that is needed
to bust things wide open for e-books.
> The hugely successful devices have
> an undeniable simplicity and appeal.
“hugely successful” from the standpoint of
profitability for their companies, certainly.
but from the standpoint of staging the
revolution of electronic books? not hardly.
> bowerbird, they can do the miniaturization now,
> and make it the $1000 you want, but the execs
> see that a lage enough market for such a device
> does not exist yet, and likely never will.
no, they can’t. not yet. but it will come soon.
and when it does, the units will fly off the shelf.
and a good part of the reason for that is that
different people will buy ‘em for different reasons.
but once they are carrying the unit around,
they’ll see that e-books are one of the uses.
i expect e-books will _never_ be the main use;
i would think that would be web connectivity,
including access to your e-mail. nonetheless,
_until_ people routinely carry around machines
like this, e-books don’t stand much of a chance.
and i say that as a person who has looked forward
to electronic-books for some 25 years already. and
i’m guessing that’s about how old you are, zach. :+)
-bowerbird
August 6th, 2005 at 8:33 am
[...] Background: this post is grew out of some discussion at TeleRead, NoSheep, and here at MaisonBisson. [...]
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