E-books will take off only when they’re free, says New York Times’ Futurist in Residence
“eBooks may take off, but only when they are offered free. At present there is no notion of buying a player for books. There may be a market for mini-books running on ebook readers, offering extra content and special graphics.” - Views of Michael Rogers, the New York Times’ Futurist in Residence, as summed up by Sky News.
The TeleRead take: Ad-supported books would be helpful, given many surfers’ identification of E with “free.” But let there be traditional alternatives, too! Meanwhile I remain a big fan of the ad-supported Wowio service. If only I can talk ‘em into doing .epub soon!
Latest free Wowio discovery—actually among the top downloads right now: Mathematics and Sex, by Clio Cresswell.










November 28th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Must be a great job to be a futurist.
Until Apple showed it could make a fortune selling it, everyone thought digital music would have to be free. And then there were those who asked what idiot would pay twenty or a hundred dollars a month to get more TV when they can get over-the-air for Free. And paying a thousand bucks for a dedicated TV-watching device?? Really.
I really think the analogy is a good one. The analogy also applies to dedicated eBook readers. Some day, we’ll all have multifunction devices. Display technology will be in our sunglasses or projected directly onto our optic nerves so we won’t have to worry about whether we can actually read on that tiny screen. But for now, a dedicated device offers a lot of value to a subset of the population–especially those of us who no longer feel comfortable with the tiny print you find in mass market paperbacks.
Sure, play with ad-supported eBooks. But lots of people prefer their TV without ads. Why should books be different?
Rob Preece
Publisher, http://www.BooksForABuck.com
November 28th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
[...] that was my first reaction when I read David Rothman’s headline - E-books will take off only when they’re free, says New York Times’ Futurist in Residence - in TeleRead.And what is a Futurist-in-Residence? The picture of Michael Rogers in TeleRead [...]
November 28th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I agree with Rob. I don’t like someone trying to sell me something all the time. My favorite TV channel on satellite is TCM, which has no commercials at all. Also, I use my TiVo to skip commercials all the time.
I feel the same way about ebooks. I would much rather pay a fair price for an ebook than get it for free and put up with advertising. Some people like (or at least tolerate) advertising, especially if they think they can get something for “free”. Well, it isn’t really free, is it? It’s just subsidized.
November 28th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Oh, one more thought about futurists - where is my flying car and my vacation on Mars?
November 28th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
R. and J: Heck, I’d hope the for-sale model would survive! In fact, I want ad-supported books to have a turn-the-ads-off option for paying folks. I just want to see more options for readers, and besides, the ad-supported books may give ‘em a taste for the other kind. As a writer, I can go for that!
Thanks and HH,
David
November 28th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Ads: I think people think of the nice static ads that are in print. Turn the page and it’s gone. Have any of you yet experienced these very invasive and distracting animations that crawl across — or now even spin across! — the screen, right over a website?
I’d rather not have those. Which means that’s what they will be.
November 28th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Well, for now at least, Wowio books don’t have that many ads. What’s more, with the right arrangement, you can simply have ads between chapters. They needn’t and shouldn’t be continuous distractions. Tacky! As for animations, fergit! I’m with you there!!!!!! David
November 29th, 2007 at 1:13 am
Manybooks.net announces that it now has 18,875 free ebooks available for download. Someone should inform Mr. Rogers that THE FREE BOOKS ARE HERE.
November 29th, 2007 at 5:50 am
My scepticism of futurology need no extra support, but unbidden more is supplied.
I do not buy the idea, there is no economics in the thing, nothing but wishful nativity. Just how many books does are likely to be produced, and how many authors producing them? Any one’s guess, but a hell of a lot is my guess, a lot more than advertisers are willing to pay for, by a large margin.
I will also suggest one more dimension. Some books do not make a lot of money initially, but their quality means they are bought year after year for decades on end — that is a lot longer than most companies paying for advertising will be around. Other specialist books, never will have wide audience and need to charge a heavier price if the author is to keep writing — just how would advertisers cope with that? Can any one believe that they would subsidise some work of history because it is a work of quality and critical to the development of knowledge, or argue that such an author should receive only pennies for their efforts?
Publishing is far too wide and diverse to be financed by penny-anny operations like advertising. It may have a role, but a very small one, just as it once did in book publishing, subsidising publication here and there, now mostly forgotten. Digital publishing’s future is for even more works, even more diverse than before, and a wider and diverse international audience than anything managed before in human history, just what division of the GDP, or for that matter the GIP, gross international product, would advertising have to control to support digital publishing now and in the future? And why would ebooks deserve a significant part of that figure?
Will the peddlers of electric toothbrushes and underwear determine what is published? Should we found the development of our knowledge and culture on the intellectual giants that inhabit the world of advertising? Would anyone think that a good idea, even if it were viable, which it is not?
Using the same logic of such “futurism” should not everything be free if in anyway it can carry advertising? What makes ebooks so different? What would make such an economy work?
Authors deserve payment, they deserve a market capable of paying them, and no reader, who loves reading, wants to deny them their due. Our problem is purely a technical one, a price regime that recognises that digital publishing means virtually free reproduction (practically all the costs are in the writing and producing), and means of payment which is less awkward, and far less expensive to pay small amounts and that these payments do not pass through too many hands (none would be excellent) before reaching the creative minds responsible for them.
November 29th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Hm? The way I remember it, that’s mostly what publishers thought. A lot of people said: “how do you know until you’ve tried?” (Not me though; quite frankly I think the idea of selling the advertising for your concerts is ludicrous, and really only profitable for the top 10% of all those that make music for money. Which also neatly highlights why I think the comparison is flawed.)
There are some 7 or 8 manufacturers that are developing flying cars. Some of them have been at it a long time. Most of them are American, but the single Dutch one claims that the hardest problems to overcome are those of a regulatory nature, not a technological one.
Are you sure it is the futurists that predicted this? Futurology tries to look at the future from what’s possible, and vacationing on Mars has some serious technological, psychological and financial hurdles to overcome. For instance: planets move. You cannot just decide half way through that you want to turn around and go home, because the shortest way home is via Mars. I’d like to see some citations before I believe that futurologists came up with this one.
However, if you are so inclined, the Russians will sell you a flight around the moon for a mere 100 million USD. I’m sure that for that price they’ll throw in the camera for free.
November 29th, 2007 at 10:19 am
I bought my Sony Reader last March. I have found out that most of the people do not even know that there is a such thing as an E-book reader. Or they are stuck with the turning of pages.
I have in a Doctor’s office and spent about 10 minutes showing him how it works. He loved it.
People have stopped at our table in restaurants to see what we are reading and how.
People who read loved the idea of taking multiple readings on a trip instead of carrying multiple paperbacks or hardbacks. Some are reaching the age of the print being too small in print and the way you can enlarge on the reader.
I remember my first mobile phone from the early Eighty’s. I bought it in the TV department of Sears. The size of that of a lunch box with an antenna that you hooked outside of the car. Big and bulky. Now look at mobile phones and how everybody and their brother has one.
Maybe you think that E-books are only going to take off if they are free but I think the future customers have to know that they are out there and how convenient they are. They need to see the readers and see how they work in person. Give people more credit, once they actually see more around they will sell. After the theory has been around since Star Trek.
November 29th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
Well, the Sony Reader never got the kind of press coverage the Kindle has, that’s for sure. As you can see, people are still writing about it.
Borders has it for sale, but do you see any Come Meet The Sony Reader demo nights?! Ha! Even that would help! (So would some brochures. I see Borders hasn’t had them in for ages. No, you can’t have my actual-sized PRS500 brochure!)
As for what the future (now!) was supposed to be, go peek and weep:
http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/