16 million regular e-book downloaders possible in a few years, Fairfield Research predicts
“With strong demand for the Kindle spurring renewed interest in the e-book market, a research group has released a report based on a consumer survey that found that 17% of book buyers said they would purchase a copy of a book in some digital format.” - Jim Milliot, Publishers Weekly.
Details: “The number of consumers who will regularly download a book to an e-book reader could reach 16 million adults in the next few years,” PW paraphrases a conclusion from Fairfield Research. Are we in e-book hype territory again? Or is Fairfield actually on the mark, given the existence of the Kindle and success of the Orman book download? A few more tidbits from PW:
“The study…found that 17% of book buyers had already purchased an e-book. [Fairfield] makes a distinction between e-books that can be downloaded to a device and/or printed out and digital books that must be read on screens. In the latter case, downloading a book to an e-book reader was the clear preference for how consumers would like to view digital books, with other alternatives generating no more than a 10% purchase-intent level.
” According to the report, 17% of book buyers said they were either moderately or highly interested in downloading a digital book to a reader such as the Kindle or Sony Reader. Book buyers were less interested in other alternatives, such as pay-read options that would permit readers to rent a digital book…”
Size and nature of the market: Fairfield says it could be between 6.8 million and 16.1 million consumers. Prime targets would be employed men 25-34 making $100K plus.
A few questions: Hmm. So what does this mean for Google’s emphasis on a browser-related approach, as opposed to downloads? And how about DRM? What little I know of the report—I haven’t read it—suggests that people truly want to own books, with with proprietary protection schemes is problematic. I’d also be curious about interest in downloading to dedicated e-book readers vs. cellphones and PDAs, which eventually will have rollout e-paper screens. Can we really blur the distinction?
February 20th, 2008 at 11:55 am
David,
Were you able to read the actual study? I did not find it. This looks like a cleverly worded farce to me. And if it is accurate the 6.8 million customers estimated would account for $5 per year per customer of wholesale value based on the IDPF results for 2007.
The preference for buying not renting is similar to what we saw with music. But what is with the convoluted language describing the device choices? If I read it correctly the question was worded is some way that said: “if you can not print the content then would you rather read the content on BlackBerry or a Kindle?” Which might has well have been if the content is protected by DRM would you use a device compatible with the DRM scheme to read it.
Not having the questions asked or the results in front of me I dismiss this as wholly ridiculous.
Timothy Murray
Manager Electronic Publishing Development
Cambridge University Press
February 21st, 2008 at 9:59 am
Timothy: Helpful comments, thanks. I agree that the language is tricky. In fairness to the report, which, no, I still haven’t seen, I would note that it reportedly talks about “regular” downloads. Let’s hope that would mean more than just $5 a year per consumer. Thanks. David