Of course, for a million or two million downloads, the CPM numbers will seem better. I have to wonder whether the effort to download something (even for free) doesn’t inherently limit the number of ebook files for potential advertising. Browser-based readers do not impose this kind of limitation.

Realistically mp3s will be downloaded by more people than ebooks. Why? People can consume more mp3s. Not only because mp3s provide only 3 minutes of entertainment, but also because mp3s are bundled together in “albums.” In contrast, ebooks are usually just a single downloadable file. The real ebook “bundle” is the flash media drive which can be preloaded with appropriate content.

I suspect people read more webpages than book pages over their lifetimes. But reading in current browsers and hardware is painful over long periods of time. Computer people are more comfortable doing this. They appreciate the convenience of being able to read and work on the same device (that allows them to google things and cut and paste). But these reasons don’t really matter to the general reader.

Reading an ebook is a more immersive (and hopefully more portable) experience than reading on a PC or laptop. It is also supposed to be more immersive than reading a web page. The hypertextual web allows lots of different paths; an ebook is supposed to limit the number of paths and present a single forward path. Old-fashioned, yes, but many kinds of content don’t lend themselves easily or well to modularization or customized paths taken by the reader. I could see a technical book being more modular and easier to break down into component parts (with ads), but you really can’t break down narrative forms. Think about it; how many types of books published today lack meaningful tables of contents?

As for the price situation, I think the bigger market online will help take care of that. You want to put ads in books? Then it’ll either have to be free or sold at a fair price, or the author and publisher will suffer.

HH,
David

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/02/books/review/Collins-t.html

So you’re right on that. But I think that the idea that there’s sufficient elasticity to cut prices by a large amount is totally wrongheaded. Unlike music, which is quickly consumed (a song takes 3 to 4 minutes to listen to, and price elasticity does have an impact on whether you try a new song or listen to an old one again. But many types of books require a substantial time committment, and even regular readers already often have huge piles of unread books, as we end up buying more than we have time for.

And as for the kind of books that you don’t read from beginning to end, but just use to look up information, or to learn something new, the “all you can eat” (at least in a category) subscription model may be more appropriate to consider.

Look at the comparison with cable TV. “Channels” and subscription packages generate far more revenue than pay-per-view, which is the equivalent to the downloadable ebook.

Obviously, both models will exist, as well as advertising for some kinds of content. But again, you’re kidding yourself if you think that advertising will replace the revenue generated by current book sales. Current CPM (cost per thousand) rates for advertising range from $1 to $20 at the high end, very targeted (except with a very few rare exceptions.) So if you have a book that sells 20,000 copies, you might generate at most a few hundred dollars from advertising. Do the math, don’t just make pie-in-the-sky assertions.

Take an average book, say a 400 page book, and assume you get an ad for every page read online. That’s 40 cents at the most common ad rates — that’s gross revenue. You have to get a LOT more readers to bring you up to the level of revenue you get today from a printed book.

Advertising works for aggregators like portals and search engines because they can amass billions of page views, often on user-generated (or computer-generated) content for which they pay nothing.

I’m sure there will be ad supported books, and ads as a supplement to other revenue streams, but it isn’t going to be enough to support the publishing industry as presently configured.

“The fact that Amazon will offer newspapers as a “Trojan Horse” feature to get their device in the hands of Netizens intimates another reason e-books will soar—Netizens are already decreasingly reading newspapers and magazines in analog format, in favor of digital format, and overall it is causing revenue growth for publishers.”

There are just too many gotchas to the way Amazon is offering newspapers. For one, why would I pay to read the Washington Post or New York Times on my Kindle when I can read it for free on the web?? Besides, maybe I’m an outlier, but I no longer am interested in reading a single newspaper anymore than I am interested in watching a single network’s programming on a given evening of television viewing…I much prefer reading the best of multiple newspapers, thank you Googley much.

I think Bezos has made a key decision to connect his device to readily available software. The real question is one of standards and maybe Amazon being the elephant in the room can just go ahead and create the standard. I like the inclusion of eInk - a process I touted in workshops at teachers’ reading conventions several years ago.

I could have bought an iPhone or an iPod Touch to do some of these activities I do on my Palm TX in a “cooler” way (Cover Flow), but I decided to wait for their next generation at least.

Somehow being a “fish” who has been in the water for a long time in this whole ebook business (60+ demographic) and watching those around me cast doubt toward my 250 books I carry around in my shirt pocket, I’m going to be a bystander until the dust settles since I’ve already had access to all that type of information for over five years.

Now if someone would come up with a device for less than $200 that accesses the internet, includes ebooks using eInk, and also audiobooks as well as podcasts and videocasts, I might be persuaded to part with some of my cash to replace those devices which have served me well. And, it need not have a phone embedded in it…..

Iliad has some of the right functionality, but not price. For students, handwriting is superior for notes and writing in general, but that is an aside.

The real problem is the quality and price of text books. I mean really well written ones, not the poor brightly coloured stuff supplied by the Textbook Industry.

Cracking the education market, means frontally attacking the well heeled and aggressive Textbook Industry. It means finding the best minds in the humanities and sciences, and commissioning them to write high quality material, for secondary students. A book list that cannot be ignored, a bundle of the most essential text books covering all the major areas of study.

Produce; a reader that is cheap and robust, a fundamental collection of authoritative reference works, an easy to reach shelf interface (a sub group of texts that can quickly be jumped between), and real textbooks that clearly and expertly, coherently, explain subjects in simple language (i.e. not just a dump of handy titles of uneven quality) — that is the package killer IMHO.

DRM has no place, the individual title price has to be low, the whole package would have to bundled at the cost of handful of present p-textbooks, and the thing will crack.

The textbook industry by its often shoddy products, high prices and yearly, needlessly changed editions, has made the market for change. Look at any public school in the English speaking world and it is virtually the same story. Students rarely have textbooks of their own, there is a general scarcity of them and the photocopy has become practically the only “reading” most students have in the course of studies. The situation is one brought about by an Industry that has plundered the public education purse.

It is the weakest link.

Yes, yes, yes!

This is one of the best interviews and interview *guests* I’ve read in a *long* time. This interview should be read by *every* publisher (and, in fact, every *writer*). Well done!!