Why the iPhone IS a strong Kindle rival: Wisdom from Tim O’Reilly and Jim Lichtenberg
No, this isn’t Kindle-bashing—I see success for both the iPhone and Kindle. But too many people have dissed the possibilities of the former.
For months, along with Mike Cane and some others, I’ve been talking up the phone as an e-reader for those who, say, value portability over screen size and want a more open approach then Amazon’s. The possibility of an iPoddish tablet makes things still more interesting.
In postings today to a mailing list, Tim O’Reilly of O’Reilly Media and Jim Lichtenberg, a leading book industry consultant, cite some cogent numbers that nicely jibe with comments by Steve Pendergrast, co-owner of eReader.com—not just my own thoughts.
Tim, while rightly concerned about Amazon achieving e-dominance through obnoxious lock-ins of both consumers and publishers, says:
I find myself really puzzled by the idea that iPhone book sales are wishful thinking. I’d lay strong odds that there is more content being consumed today on the iPhone than on the Kindle, and that an increasing amount of that will be paid content. I think it’s going to be a horse race, and I don’t see any reason to think that it’s game over yet.
I also think that anyone who expects the e-book market to be only 5-10% of their sales is really missing the boat. Journals have made the transition to nearly 100%. Is there any reason to think that books will not also head in that direction?
For us at O’Reilly, electronic (Safari plus downloadable in various forms) is close to 20% of sales. Yes, techies are early adopters, but that’s exactly what it says: early adopters. Mainstream will follow.
…Apple sold one million 3G iPhone in 3 days, between the launch day, 7/11 and 7/13. According to Business Week they are manufacturing 150,000 units a day. The goal is to sell some 13 million this year. As distribution of the new iPhone goes global (China, India), optimistic estimates put their 2009 sales at 45 million worldwide. If they sell only a total of 50 million in the first year and a half, and if, say, only 5% pf those purchasers, i.e. one in 20 users, occasionally download textual content—STM, trade, children’s books, educational materials whatever—that’s a base of 2 million readers by the end of 2009. And if one of the reading apps proves particularly appealing, that figure could soar in Apple’s very viral world.Downloading textual material to the iPhone is quick and easy. In the spirit of conjecture, one can imagine a reasonably-priced device, like external speakers for the iPod, where you pop the iPhone into a cradle and open the soft plastic e-ink enabled pages, and away you go. Even on the beach.
Note the last paragraph. Jim is addressing the issue of screen size, a factor important with textbooks and scientific and technical volumes.
August 26th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
[...] the latest of the iPhone vs. Kindle bout, Tim O’Reilly of O’Reilly Media and Jim Lichtenberg of Lightspeed (a consulting company [...]
August 26th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
When it comes to reading, the iPhone is to the Kindle like a scooter is to a car. Yes, it is very nice to park. And fun to use for short distances. And it takes the corners so much more nicely. But for long hauls? Going from San Francisco to Seattle on a scooter will probably do the same thing to your back as reading a Cory Doctorov on the iPhone, in a single session, to your eyes. (I did the latter one a month ago, and I still got an after-image burnt into my retinas.)
Don’t get me wrong: I am using both a scooter and a car, and an iPhone and a Kindle. But I am not likely to buy a book for reading on my phone, if I can help it… Did our experts really try and read full-length books on the phone?
August 26th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Kindle will always be a very strong niche player due to the tremendous market Amazon has, but the shear number of multipurpose handhelds (currently lead by iphone/itouch) means more people will be reading there overall. From the numbers we’re seeing it’s probably already crossed that line considering we are only one of several reading apps for the platform.
August 26th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
I agree with the ’scooter’ comparison. Reading extensively on a small screen is exhausting. It’s the very reason I hate reading anything lengthy on a computer screen. But don’t forget that many people have workdays that give them a few minutes to read here and there on the go. A tiny screen isn’t as tiring in short spans and a backlit screen might even be better than the Kindle in the constantly changing lighting of a bus or cab. And you’ll always have the iPhone (or iPod touch) with you. The Kindle is yet another bit of clutter to remember each morning when you go out the door.
If Apple wants to compete with Amazon in ebooks, they need to do several things.
First, make distribution of text as easy as music, allowing users to synchronize what they’re reading between their desktop, laptop and iPhone. That means when I get home, having read a chapter or two during my commute on my iPhone, my iMac knows and I can pick up where I left off. And make this synchronization work over a local network, WiFi or Bluetooth. Don’t force us to MobileMe.
Second, Apple needs to do subscriptions as well or better than Kindle. A lot of what people want to read on the go is the equivalent of newspapers and magazines. Make it easy for even obscure business and professional newsletters to publish via iTunes. Also give busy professionals a way to track their reading, so nothing is missed, as well as a way to archive specific articles. In short, treat digital publications more like podcasts than music. Allow free publications too, making money on the hardware. The more digital texts are available via iTunes, the more hardware you’ll sell, from desktops and laptops to iPhones.
Third, as I have already hinted, don’t just make this system for the iPhone and high-end iPods. Make digital text work like iTunes music, spreading itself seamlessly from whatever gadget downloads it to a user’s other read-ready gadgetry. Something I pick up on the go with my iPhone should move that evening onto my iMac or laptop. Treat all a user’s gadgetry as one, so we never have to remember where we put something. And that also means that things I read on an iPhone get backed up with my desktop data. Again less hassle.
Fourth, Apple needs to add a ’stand-out’ feature that would never work well with the bulkier Kindle. They need to have synchronized text and text-to-speech. When I’m riding Metro, I read because I can read faster than I can listen. When I get to the park to jog or walk, I move seamlessly to text-to-speech mode, picking up at precisely where I left off.
August 26th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
“want a more open approach then Amazon’s”
How is the iPhone more open than the Kindle? Assuming arguendo that iTunes does eventually offer ebooks is there really any chance that Apple is likely to offer current titles DRM-free in a cross platform file format?
Or is it more likely that Apple will tie their iTunes ebook purchases to their devices a la mp4p’s to iPods?
That issue aside I have no doubt that iPhone users will do a lot of reading on their device. I just doubt that there will be a large percentage of iPhone owners that routinely read more than occasional web pages or blogs or the like.
August 26th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
So, HeavyG, does the Kindle allow an e-reader with ePub capabilities—which is what the iPhone and iPod Touch do? Apple is hardly a paragon of openness, as my item about censorship shows. But it’s far ahead of Amazon in areas such as e-forms (via third-party apps).
Thanks,
David
August 26th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Neither the iPhone nor the Kindle natively supports epub.
To read epub on the iPhone requires a third party app(as you stated).
To read epub on the Kindle requires a simple file format conversion.
End result - there is no limiting difference between the two devices.
Epub, at the moment, is not a significant factor in epublishing at the book buyer level. If/when it does become “a player” then I am sure that more devices will be able to handle it natively or thru seamless conversion.
I suspect that the next gen Kindle may well support epub natively or via their conversion service.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
BUT the appropriate iPhone-targeted APPS can render ePub natively. The Kindle won’t let you run third-party apps on it.
Hey, I sure hope the Kindle can do native ePub service! Translation is possible now via Mobi Desktop—but only of nonencrypted files. Native rendering for many reasons would be better.
Thanks,
David
August 26th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I’m glad my Kindle won’t run third party apps on it!!!
I much prefer that the Kindle focus primarily on being an ebook reader and not a Swiss army knife.
The problem with iPhone/iTouch, PC’s, PDA’s is that once you start installing a bunch of apps sooner or later something is going to muck up the works. We’ve all experienced that I’m sure.
August 27th, 2008 at 2:01 am
“The problem with iPhone/iTouch, PC’s, PDA’s is that once you start installing a bunch of apps sooner or later something is going to muck up the works.”
Exactly, HG. Such is the downside of openness—or at least more openness than the Kindle has.
Thanks, and enjoy your Kindle. With prices expected to drop on the basic unit, I’ll be surprised if I’m not a fellow owner soon despite my problems with eBabel, DRM and the like.
David